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␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ αhPLEASE KEEP THIS DOCUMENT SECRET FROM THE RUSSIANS





␈↓ ↓H␈↓α␈↓ ↓cA PROPOSAL TO TRADE A COMPUTER FOR THE DISSIDENTS AND REFUSENIKS

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_At␈α
present␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈α
government␈α
is␈αholding␈α
some␈α
hundreds␈α
of␈α
would-be␈α
scientist␈αemigres
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and␈α∂has␈α∞arrested␈α∂many␈α∂of␈α∞the␈α∂leading␈α∂dissidents.␈α∞ On␈α∂the␈α∞other␈α∂hand,␈α∂there␈α∞is␈α∂a␈α∂pending␈α∞deal
␈↓ ↓H␈↓whereby␈α⊗they␈α↔would␈α⊗be␈α⊗permitted␈α↔to␈α⊗buy␈α⊗a␈α↔Cyber␈α⊗76␈α⊗computer␈α↔made␈α⊗by␈α↔Control␈α⊗Data
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Corporation.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂deal␈α⊂is␈α⊂being␈α⊂held␈α⊂up␈α⊂on␈α∂account␈α⊂of␈α⊂objections␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂Soviets␈α⊂will␈α⊂get␈α∂a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓strategic␈αadvantage␈αfrom␈αsuch␈αa␈αpowerful␈αcomputer,␈αand␈αthe␈αagreement␈αthat␈αthe␈αcomputer␈αwill␈αbe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓used only for non-military purposes cannot be enforced.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_This␈αis␈α
a␈αproposal␈α
for␈αa␈α
vulgar␈αtrade.␈α We␈α
let␈αthem␈α
buy␈αthe␈α
Cyber␈α76␈α
and␈αpossibly␈αa␈α
second
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Cyber␈α⊂76␈α⊂in␈α∂excahnge␈α⊂for␈α⊂clearing␈α⊂the␈α∂books␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α∂long-standing␈α⊂would-be␈α⊂emigres␈α⊂and␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓current␈α⊂crop␈α⊂of␈α⊂arrested␈α⊂dissidents.␈α⊂ We␈α⊂will␈α∂undertake␈α⊂to␈α⊂justify␈α⊂offering␈α⊂the␈α⊂deal␈α⊂on␈α∂several
␈↓ ↓H␈↓grounds.␈α∂ The␈α∂justification␈α∂is␈α∂based␈α∂on␈α∂a␈α∞certain␈α∂model␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂political␈α∂situation␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∞Soviet
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Union␈αand␈αto␈αa␈αlesser␈αdegree␈αon␈αsome␈αideas␈αconcerning␈αthe␈αworld␈αpolitical␈αsituation.␈α The␈αessence
␈↓ ↓H␈↓of␈α
the␈α
idea␈α
is␈α
that␈α
their␈α
political␈α
situation␈α∞is␈α
such␈α
that␈α
we␈α
can␈α
buy␈α
large␈α
moral␈α∞concessions␈α
with
␈↓ ↓H␈↓small␈α
material␈α
concessions,␈α
because␈αSoviets␈α
who␈α
have␈α
little␈αenthusiasm␈α
for␈α
their␈α
moral␈αposition␈α
will
␈↓ ↓H␈↓tend to overestimate the importance of our material concession.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_1.␈α
We␈αwill␈α
relieve␈α
the␈αsuffering␈α
of␈α
the␈αrefuseniks␈α
and␈α
dissidents␈αwhose␈α
emigration␈αwe␈α
secure.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓While␈αthey␈αare␈αrelatively␈α
few,␈αthe␈αgood␈αdone␈αthere␈α
is␈αclear.␈α All␈αthe␈α
other␈αgains␈αor␈αlosses␈αfrom␈α
this
␈↓ ↓H␈↓or␈αany␈αother␈αpolicy␈αare␈αproblematical.␈α The␈αdirect␈αrelief␈αof␈αsuffering␈αshould␈αalways␈αbe␈αconsidered
␈↓ ↓H␈↓worthwhile.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_2.␈αThe␈αstrategic␈α
loss␈αis␈αminimal.␈α
 There␈αis␈αno␈α
magic␈αin␈αa␈α
Cyber␈α76.␈α Any␈α
computation␈αthat
␈↓ ↓H␈↓can␈α∂be␈α∂done␈α∞on␈α∂a␈α∂Cyber␈α∂76␈α∞can␈α∂be␈α∂done␈α∞at␈α∂somewhat␈α∂greater␈α∂cost␈α∞on␈α∂computers␈α∂of␈α∂their␈α∞own
␈↓ ↓H␈↓manufacture␈α⊂that␈α⊂the␈α⊂Soviets␈α∂already␈α⊂have.␈α⊂ As␈α⊂I␈α∂understand␈α⊂it,␈α⊂the␈α⊂Cyber␈α∂76␈α⊂is␈α⊂to␈α⊂be␈α⊂in␈α∂an
␈↓ ↓H␈↓unclassified␈α∞location,␈α∞and␈α∞the␈α∞bootlegging␈α∞of␈α∞even␈α∞a␈α∞shift␈α∞a␈α∞day␈α∞will␈α∞hardly␈α∞make␈α∞an␈α∞important
␈↓ ↓H␈↓difference␈αin␈αSoviet␈αmilitary␈αpotential.␈α Free␈αaccess␈αto␈αthe␈αpurchase␈αof␈αCyber␈α76␈αcomputers␈αwould
␈↓ ↓H␈↓be␈αa␈α
more␈αsubstantial␈α
concession.␈α Then␈α
it␈αmight␈α
become␈αworth␈α
their␈αwhile␈α
to␈αadapt␈α
their␈αmajor
␈↓ ↓H␈↓bomb or missile programs to it.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α∀remaining␈α∀considerations␈α∃depend␈α∀on␈α∀the␈α∀following␈α∃model␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∃Soviet␈α∀political
␈↓ ↓H␈↓situation:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_3.␈αCommunism␈αas␈αan␈αideology␈αin␈αthe␈αSoviet␈αUnion␈αis␈αin␈αa␈αstate␈αof␈αadvanced␈αdecay.␈α While
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Brezhnev␈αmight␈α
like␈αto␈αrestore␈α
some␈αof␈αthe␈α
features␈αof␈αStalinism,␈α
he␈αcan't␈αrestore␈α
the␈αenthusiasm
␈↓ ↓H␈↓that␈α
Communists␈αin␈α
the␈αSoviet␈α
Union␈α
and␈αelsewhere␈α
felt␈αfor␈α
Stalin.␈α
 Millions␈αof␈α
people␈αwere␈α
ready
␈↓ ↓H␈↓to␈α
die␈α
for␈α
Stalin␈αor␈α
kill␈α
or␈α
torture␈αat␈α
his␈α
command.␈α
 Brezhnev␈αinspires␈α
no␈α
enthusiasm␈α
in␈αthe␈α
Soviet
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Union␈α
or␈α
elsewhere␈α
nor␈αcan␈α
Communism␈α
generate␈α
such␈αenthusiasm␈α
on␈α
behalf␈α
of␈α
another␈αleader.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Other␈αCommunist␈αmovements,␈αsuch␈αas␈αthe␈αChinese,␈αare␈αalso␈αdecaying,␈αbut␈αthe␈αloss␈αof␈αenthusiasm
␈↓ ↓H␈↓and fanaticism is not so far advanced.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_4.␈αWhat␈αholds␈αthe␈αregime␈αtogether␈αis␈αprivilege,␈αnationalism,␈αreal␈αand␈αimaginary␈αideas␈αabout
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 91


␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α⊂defects␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂Free␈α⊂World,␈α⊂and,␈α⊂in␈α∂some␈α⊂quarters,␈α⊂contempt␈α⊂for␈α⊂the␈α⊂weakness␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α∂Free
␈↓ ↓H␈↓World.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_5.␈α∩One␈α∪of␈α∩the␈α∪most␈α∩striking␈α∪characteristics␈α∩of␈α∪the␈α∩Soviet␈α∪system␈α∩is␈α∪its␈α∩lack␈α∪of␈α∩dignity
␈↓ ↓H␈↓evidenced␈α
by␈α∞(a)␈α
the␈α∞special␈α
distributions␈α∞of␈α
scarce␈α
consumer␈α∞goods␈α
to␈α∞privileged␈α
people,␈α∞(b)␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓foreign␈α
currency␈α∞stores␈α
that␈α∞ordinary␈α
Russians␈α∞are␈α
not␈α
allowed␈α∞to␈α
enter,␈α∞(c)␈α
the␈α∞contrast␈α
between
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈α
tourists␈α
who␈α
are␈α
free␈α
to␈α
come␈α
and␈αgo␈α
and␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈α
citizens␈α
(even␈α
high-ranking␈α
ones)␈αwho␈α
are
␈↓ ↓H␈↓not,␈α⊗(d)␈α⊗the␈α⊗cheap␈α↔bragging␈α⊗of␈α⊗the␈α⊗newspapers,␈α↔their␈α⊗fawning␈α⊗on␈α⊗officialdom,␈α↔and␈α⊗their
␈↓ ↓H␈↓unmotivated␈α∂changes␈α∂of␈α∂position␈α⊂when␈α∂the␈α∂line␈α∂changes,␈α∂and␈α⊂(e)␈α∂their␈α∂previous␈α∂deals␈α⊂with␈α∂the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓West␈α∞-␈α∞trading␈α∞dissidents␈α∂and␈α∞Jews␈α∞for␈α∞wheat␈α∞and␈α∂other␈α∞advantages.␈α∞ The␈α∞control␈α∞of␈α∂the␈α∞press
␈↓ ↓H␈↓prevents␈αsentiment␈αagainst␈αthese␈αand␈αother␈αindignities␈αfrom␈αsnowballing,␈αbut␈αwhen␈αthis␈αsentiment
␈↓ ↓H␈↓finally breaks loose, it will make a major contribution to decisive change.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α
present␈α∞importance␈α
of␈α∞this␈α
lack␈α∞of␈α
dignity␈α∞is␈α
that␈α∞our␈α
intuitions␈α∞about␈α
what␈α∞kinds␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓deal␈αare␈αto␈αundignified␈αto␈αbe␈α
possible␈αtend␈αto␈αbe␈αincorrect.␈α As␈α
long␈αas␈αthe␈αSoviet␈αpress␈αcan␈α
ignore
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the indignity, almost anything is possible provided it has other advantages.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_6.␈αThe␈αregime's␈αmistreatment␈αof␈αJews␈αin␈αgeneral,␈αthe␈αrefuseniks␈αin␈αparticular,␈αand␈αdissidents
␈↓ ↓H␈↓lacks␈α⊗moral␈α∃self-confidence.␈α⊗ This␈α∃is␈α⊗shown␈α⊗by␈α∃its␈α⊗many␈α∃inconsistencies␈α⊗and␈α⊗the␈α∃frequent
␈↓ ↓H␈↓concessions␈α∀when␈α∪there␈α∀is␈α∀some␈α∪outside␈α∀reason␈α∪to␈α∀make␈α∀concessions.␈α∪ The␈α∀Soviet␈α∀regime␈α∪is
␈↓ ↓H␈↓somewhat␈α⊃susceptible␈α⊂to␈α⊃moral␈α⊂pressure,␈α⊃but␈α⊂in␈α⊃contrast␈α⊂to␈α⊃other␈α⊂regimes␈α⊃susceptible␈α⊃to␈α⊂moral
␈↓ ↓H␈↓pressure␈α∩(like␈α∩the␈α∪Tsarist␈α∩regime␈α∩before␈α∩it␈α∪or␈α∩the␈α∩British␈α∩colonial␈α∪regime),␈α∩it␈α∩is␈α∪much␈α∩more
␈↓ ↓H␈↓susceptible to material pressure, however weak.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_The␈α∀reason␈α∀relatively␈α∀weak␈α∀material␈α∃pressure␈α∀often␈α∀succeeds␈α∀is␈α∀that␈α∃exaggerating␈α∀the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓importance␈α∀of␈α∀Western␈α∃concessions␈α∀is␈α∀one␈α∃of␈α∀the␈α∀main␈α∃ways␈α∀Soviet␈α∀scientists␈α∃and␈α∀officials
␈↓ ↓H␈↓unconvinced␈αby␈α
the␈αregime's␈α
moral␈αposition␈αcan␈α
struggle␈αfor␈α
what␈αthey␈αwould␈α
like␈αto␈α
do␈αanyway.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓People␈α∞who␈α∞do␈α∞not␈α∞dare␈α∞argue␈α∞that␈α∞it␈α∞is␈α∞immoral␈α∞to␈α∞hold␈α∞Levich␈α∞or␈α∞Lerner␈α∞or␈α∞Shcharansky␈α∞or
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Bukovsky␈α
will␈αargue␈α
the␈αimportance␈α
to␈αthe␈α
Soviet␈α
Union␈αof␈α
whatever␈αlure␈α
is␈αoffered␈α
to␈α
let␈αthem
␈↓ ↓H␈↓go.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_7.␈α∂Whenever␈α∂the␈α∂Soviet␈α∂Union␈α∂makes␈α∂a␈α∂trade␈α∂of␈α∂principle␈α∂for␈α∂material␈α∂gain,␈α∂it␈α∂damages
␈↓ ↓H␈↓their␈α∩political␈α∩position␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩world␈α∩and␈α∩the␈α∩position␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩Communist␈α∩parties␈α⊃everywhere.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Fortunately,␈α∂the␈α∂leaders␈α∂cannot␈α∂allow␈α∂themselves␈α∂to␈α∂see␈α∂this,␈α∂because␈α∂to␈α∂recognize␈α∂it␈α⊂would␈α∂cast
␈↓ ↓H␈↓doubt on the whole mechanism of privilege that their well-being depends on.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_8.␈α
For␈α
these␈αreasons,␈α
they␈α
may␈αgo␈α
for␈α
the␈αproposed␈α
trade␈α
of␈αthe␈α
refuseniks␈α
and␈αdissidents␈α
for
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αcomputer.␈α We␈α
can␈αrely␈αon␈αSoviet␈α
scientists␈αto␈αargue␈αfor␈α
the␈αimportance␈αof␈αthe␈α
computer␈αand
␈↓ ↓H␈↓minimize␈αthe␈α
importance␈αof␈α
hanging␈αon␈αto␈α
the␈αrefuseniks.␈α
 Just␈αas␈αlong␈α
as␈αthe␈α
Soviet␈αnegotiators
␈↓ ↓H␈↓don't␈α
personally␈αlose␈α
face,␈α
the␈αfact␈α
that␈α
the␈αcountry␈α
will␈α
lose␈αface␈α
can␈α
be␈αminimized.␈α
 If␈α
any␈αkind␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓subtle␈α
bribe␈α
can␈αbe␈α
offered␈α
to␈αthe␈α
negotiator,␈α
such␈α
as␈αpublicity␈α
to␈α
the␈αeffect␈α
that␈α
he␈αhas␈α
outsmarted
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the West, this may also help.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_9.␈αThey␈αmay␈αeasily␈αconvince␈αthemselves␈αthat␈αclearing␈αthe␈αboard␈αof␈αthe␈αoutstanding␈αcases␈αof
␈↓ ↓H␈↓refuseniks␈α∃and␈α∃dissidents␈α⊗will␈α∃wipe␈α∃out␈α⊗the␈α∃problem.␈α∃ Of␈α⊗course,␈α∃such␈α∃deals␈α⊗only␈α∃further
␈↓ ↓H␈↓undermine␈α
the␈α
Soviet␈αmoral␈α
position,␈α
so␈α
that␈αthe␈α
next␈α
outbreak␈α
will␈αinvolve␈α
even␈α
more␈αpeople␈α
and
␈↓ ↓H␈↓will be fought even more halfheartedly.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_10. If they demand secrecy, it should be agreed to.  The truth will come out anyway.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ εH␈↓ 92


␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_To␈αpropose␈αsuch␈αa␈αdeal␈αnow␈αmay␈αbe␈αparticularly␈αworthwhile␈αif␈αit␈αhas␈αa␈αchance␈αto␈αhead␈αoff
␈↓ ↓H␈↓the␈αtrial␈αof␈αShcharansky␈αon␈αtreason␈αcharges.␈α This␈αtrial␈αmight␈αbe␈αsomewhat␈αof␈αa␈αwatershed␈αin␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓mistreatment of dissidents.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓ α_These␈αconsiderations␈αshould␈αnot␈αbe␈αpublished␈αin␈αassociation␈αwith␈αthe␈αnames␈αof␈αanyone␈αwho
␈↓ ↓H␈↓takes␈α⊃part␈α⊂in␈α⊃the␈α⊂negotiation.␈α⊃ Otherwise,␈α⊂the␈α⊃Soviet␈α⊂negotiators␈α⊃will␈α⊂worry␈α⊃that␈α⊃someone␈α⊂will
␈↓ ↓H␈↓accuse␈α
them␈α
of␈α
being␈α
outsmarted.␈α
 Our␈α
high␈α
officials␈α
should␈α
be␈α
willing␈α
to␈α
take␈α
a␈α
certain␈α
amount␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓public␈αcriticism␈αin␈α
connection␈αof␈αthe␈α
deal␈αwithout␈αexplaining␈αthemselves␈α
too␈αmuch.␈α They␈α
can␈αbe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓confident␈αthat␈αthe␈αlong␈αterm␈αdamage␈αto␈αthe␈αSoviet␈αpolitical␈αposition␈αwill␈αinfinitely␈αany␈αshort␈αterm
␈↓ ↓H␈↓damage to their own.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Computer Science Department
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Stanford University
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ ↓H␈↓ARPANET: MCCARTHY@SU-AI

␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓εThis draft of DEAL[S77,JMC] PUBbed at 1:39 on June 16, 1977.␈↓